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Threshold — A living market, simulated. Describe a product and how you're advertising it, and instead of a single conversion-rate guess, Threshold builds a population of thousands of AI personas — each with a job, family, personality, and budget — who live out their days, get exposed to your ads, talk to each other, and either buy or don't, entirely deterministic and reproducible. Tech: Python/FastAPI backend running a deterministic tick-based simulation engine, React/TypeScript frontend, LLM layer on Gemini — gemini-3.5-flash for narration and Google's iAPI (Managed Agents, antigravity-preview-05-2026) running spotlight personas as real managed agents, with guarded fallback to plain Gemini. Every LLM call is structurally barred from touching a probability or outcome — it only proposes and narrates; a deterministic resolver decides everything real. A live command layer lets you inject campaigns, interview personas, and pull live metrics mid-simulation — the same router the Live API voice interface is built on top of. The output isn't one number: it's a causal path for a real buyer, the exact gaps that stopped near-misses from converting, a taxonomy of drop-off reasons, the optimal time to advertise, and a word-of-mouth network you can watch spread.

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dhavalakartik

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