StockHold

Every quarterly earnings season, institutional investors and retail traders anchor on forward management guidance. Yet guidance is strategic communication, not audited GAAP disclosure. Some executive teams systematically under-promise to engineer predictable beat-and-raise quarters (the "Conservative Sandbaggers" like Nvidia and Walmart), while others promote aggressive stretch targets that quietly slip or get abandoned mid-stream (the "Aspirational Over-Promisers" like Boeing, Intel, and Nike). RevCall (revcall.streamlit.app) is an institutional-grade guidance credibility forensics and predictive delivery engine auditing the 50 top US market titans ($35.4T aggregate market cap). Key Architectural & Algorithmic Highlights: 1. Verbatim Ground-Truth Ledger: 158 verbatim forward guidance commitments from quarterly earnings calls (2023–2026) audited and resolved against subsequent Form 10-Q/10-K SEC filings and follow-up concalls. 2. Bayesian Score Hygiene: Beta-Binomial shrinkage scoring (kappa = 6.0, empirical base rate 82.7%) prevents score inflation - zero companies score ≥ 90 (top score is Broadcom AVGO at 89.6, Grade A; lowest is Target TGT at 59.2, Grade C). 3. Out-of-Sample Predictive ML: Stacking ensemble combining Bayesian MAP Logistic Regression and a Pure-NumPy HistGBDT Classifier, achieving 0.767 Out-of-Sample ROC-AUC (90% CI: [0.680, 0.844]) and 0.138 Brier Error Score (a 27.7% error reduction over the 0.191 uninformative base rate). 4. Meta Muse Forensic AI: Direct integration with Meta's flagship Muse Spark (muse-spark-1.3) via Meta Model API to synthesize 4-quadrant institutional audit memos and cross-examination watchpoints grounded in verbatim SEC 10-Q evidence. 5. Demonstrated Market Alpha: +6.67% 60-day post-earnings abnormal return spread (Top Tercile vs Bottom Tercile Say-Do credibility).