PolymathSolo

I’m an economics researcher and a superforecaster. When a portfolio or canal has congestion or a sea way is blocked, there is knock off effects on prices of commodities, oil, etc, then onto stocks, pensions, etc. I built this maritime engine, so I could simulate and see what happens if there are shocks to ocean maritime trade. I wanted to be able to see what actually happens, and the different possible delay times, how it propagates and effects other ports and transmits into prices of goods and services, and the overall economy. Unlike traditional formulas, which take information and run through formulas, my engine simulates what happens through a casual model. This can help in my research, analysis, and forecasting process. I can myself, or through instructing the built in Agentic AI assistant, powered by the Meta API, simulate and analyse what happens and how does it effect everything else. It has a supply chain disruption engine with over 900 ports, airports, and inland hubs joined by over 4500 routes. If you run a simulation for a closed Suez Canal for 14 days, it propagates the shock deterministically, and breaks down the impact down by cargo type: containers, oil, LNG, gain, semi conductors, etc. It also has a post simulation Monte Carlo like statistical analysis tool. I can run many simulations then take the data to see the most statistically probable paths.