# StockHold

- **Event:** [Meta Global AI Developer Hackathon](https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon)
- **When:** Oct 26, 12:00 PM – Nov 4, 9:00 PM (EST)
- **Where:** Online
- **Team:** [Sajal Goyal](https://cerebralvalley.ai/u/sajalg)
- **GitHub:** https://github.com/sajalgoyal113/revcall
- **Demo video:** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c78o9DmPKgU
- **Gallery:** https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery
- **Page:** https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2542

Every quarterly earnings season, institutional investors and retail traders anchor on forward management guidance. Yet guidance is strategic communication, not audited GAAP disclosure. Some executive teams systematically under-promise to engineer predictable beat-and-raise quarters (the "Conservative Sandbaggers" like Nvidia and Walmart), while others promote aggressive stretch targets that quietly slip or get abandoned mid-stream (the "Aspirational Over-Promisers" like Boeing, Intel, and Nike).

RevCall (revcall.streamlit.app) is an institutional-grade guidance credibility forensics and predictive delivery engine auditing the 50 top US market titans ($35.4T aggregate market cap).

Key Architectural & Algorithmic Highlights:
1. Verbatim Ground-Truth Ledger: 158 verbatim forward guidance commitments from quarterly earnings calls (2023–2026) audited and resolved against subsequent Form 10-Q/10-K SEC filings and follow-up concalls.
2. Bayesian Score Hygiene: Beta-Binomial shrinkage scoring (kappa = 6.0, empirical base rate 82.7%) prevents score inflation - zero companies score ≥ 90 (top score is Broadcom AVGO at 89.6, Grade A; lowest is Target TGT at 59.2, Grade C).
3. Out-of-Sample Predictive ML: Stacking ensemble combining Bayesian MAP Logistic Regression and a Pure-NumPy HistGBDT Classifier, achieving 0.767 Out-of-Sample ROC-AUC (90% CI: [0.680, 0.844]) and 0.138 Brier Error Score (a 27.7% error reduction over the 0.191 uninformative base rate).
4. Meta Muse Forensic AI: Direct integration with Meta's flagship Muse Spark (muse-spark-1.3) via Meta Model API to synthesize 4-quadrant institutional audit memos and cross-examination watchpoints grounded in verbatim SEC 10-Q evidence.
5. Demonstrated Market Alpha: +6.67% 60-day post-earnings abnormal return spread (Top Tercile vs Bottom Tercile Say-Do credibility).

## More from Meta Global AI Developer Hackathon

- [AllMindkind](https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2539)
- [Barrierefrei](https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2540)
- [Neutrino](https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2541)
- [Director's Chair](https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2543)
- [Agent Praxis](https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2544)
- [UDAY YENAGANDULA](https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2545)

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Markdown version of https://cerebralvalley.ai/e/meta-ai-developer-hackathon/hackathon/gallery/2542. Site index for agents: https://cerebralvalley.ai/llms.txt · full text: https://cerebralvalley.ai/llms-full.txt